The Political Business Cycle: How Significant?

UNCG Author/Contributor (non-UNCG co-authors, if there are any, appear on document)
Stuart D. Allen, Professor (Creator)
The University of North Carolina at Greensboro (UNCG )
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Abstract: This article provides evidence that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate conforms to a four-year political business cycle such as the one hypothesized by Nordhaus (1976) but only when the incumbent party wins the presidential election. The unemployment rate, however, is only reduced by a cumulative effect of .3 to .6 percentage points in the two years preceding a presidential victory.

Additional Information

Public Finance Quarterly, 14(1), January, 107-112.
Language: English
Date: 1986
Presidential elections, Politics, Economy, Unemployment, Business cycle

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