Who Wins, Who Loses, Who Negotiates Peace in Civil Wars: Does Regime Type Matter?
- UNCW Author/Contributor (non-UNCW co-authors, if there are any, appear on document)
- Anup Phayal (Creator)
- Institution
- The University of North Carolina Wilmington (UNCW )
- Web Site: http://library.uncw.edu/
Abstract: Previous research has shown that the outcome of a civil war is related to conflict duration: military victory by either the government or the rebels occurs early if it occurs at all, and the longer a civil war lasts, the more likely it is to end in a negotiated settlement. The models of civil war duration and outcome that have produced these findings are built on characteristics of the civil war and less on attributes of the state itself, other than where the state lies on the Polity autocracy-democracy scale. We propose that the risk of government victory versus negotiated settlement varies not only between democracies versus authoritarian regimes but across the different authoritarian regime types as identified by Geddes, Wright, and Franz. The distinguishing attributes of these regime types – democracy, one-party, personalist, military, monarchical – result in variation across regime types in their ability to defeat a rebel movement, their vulnerability to being defeated by such a movement, and their willingness and ability to negotiate a peace agreement with rebel movements. Results from a series of competing risk models using the Uppsala-PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset demonstrate that how civil wars end is partly a function of the characteristics of the regime.
Who Wins, Who Loses, Who Negotiates Peace in Civil Wars: Does Regime Type Matter?
PDF (Portable Document Format)
459 KB
Created on 4/1/2019
Views: 529
Additional Information
- Publication
- https://doi.org/10.1093/jogss/ogz011
- Language: English
- Date: 2019
- Keywords
- civil war, armed conflict duration, conflict termination, regime type