Retail Vacancy Rates: The Influence of National and Local Economic Conditions

UNCG Author/Contributor (non-UNCG co-authors, if there are any, appear on document)
Gustav D. Jud, Retired (Creator)
Daniel T. Winkler, Professor (Creator)
The University of North Carolina at Greensboro (UNCG )
Web Site:

Abstract: This study examines the extent to which local retail vacancy rates are influenced by vacancy rates in surrounding communities versus the overall national vacancy rate in the retail sector. Consistent with prior research, our simultaneous spatial autoregressive analyses of pooled retail market vacancy rates suggests that there is considerable spatial correlation in vacancy rates among neighboring metropolitan areas. There is also evidence of substantial temporal correlation in local vacancy rates. While spatial correlation dominates the national vacancy rate in explaining variation in the level of vacancy rates, changes in the national vacancy rate explain a statistically significant portion of the variation in the changes in local vacancy rates. The nature and extent to which changes in national rates affect local rates is found to differ markedly across MSAs.

Additional Information

Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, vol. 6,no. 3, 2000, pp. 249-258.
Language: English
Date: 2000
Real estate markets, Retail property, Vacancy, Local conditions, Economy

Email this document to