Loss of suitable habitat and phenological shifts of grouper and snapper spawning aggregations in the Greater Caribbean under climate change

ECU Author/Contributor (non-ECU co-authors, if there are any, appear on document)

Esra Gokturk (Creator)

Institution

East Carolina University (ECU )

Web Site: http://www.ecu.edu/lib/

Abstract: With the effects of climate change already observed in both terrestrial and marine ecosystems, an understanding of the resulting changes to the environment is necessary to assess fish population status and form appropriate fishery management plans that can be adjusted and adapted to remain effective under changing conditions. This study focused on modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and phenology of spawning aggregations of reef fishes in the Greater Caribbean region, examining four snapper and four grouper species to compare families (Lutjanidae and Serranidae, respectively). A series of ecological niche models were developed to project how the distribution and seasonal timing of fish spawning aggregation sites will change under projections from the NOAA GFDL Earth System Model and the RCP 8.5 climate scenario. The Non-Parametric Probabilistic Ecological Niche (NPPEN) Model was used to model data on fish spawning aggregations linked with information on environmental conditions from satellite data. Findings suggest that there are significant differences between groupers and snappers in their response to warming temperatures. While there was some variation among species, groupers were seen to experience slight delays and contraction of spawning season, with a greater loss of suitable FSA habitat and poleward shifts in distribution. Snappers had larger earlier shifts in phenology of spawning season, with a lower loss of suitable habitat and variable shifts in distribution. Snappers appeared to be more resilient under the effects of climate change and able to occupy a wider and warmer range of temperatures, contrasting with groupers that prefer cooler periods. As a result, groupers may lose preferred spawning conditions sooner due to climate change. Modeling shifts in fish spawning aggregation locations under climate change can be a useful tool for adaptive management because it provides information that could allow fisheries managers to adjust marine protected areas and fishing restrictions to be flexible with the impacts of climate change.

Additional Information

Publication

Thesis

Language: English

Date: 2023

Subjects

phenology;species distribution;climate model;ecological niche model

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