The Desirability Bias In Predictions: Going Optimistic Without Leaving Realism
- ASU Author/Contributor (non-ASU co-authors, if there are any, appear on document)
- Andrew Smith Ph.D, Associate Professor (Creator)
- Institution
- Appalachian State University (ASU )
- Web Site: https://library.appstate.edu/
Abstract: Does desire for an outcome inflate optimism? Previous experiments have produced mixed resultsregarding the desirability bias, with the bulk of supportive findings coming from one paradigm—the classic marked-card paradigm in which people make discrete predictions about desirable orundesirable cards being drawn from decks. We introduce a biased-guessing account for the effects from this paradigm, which posits that people are often realistic in their likelihood assessments, but when making a subjectively arbitrary prediction (a guess), they will tend to guess in a desired direction. In order to establish the validity of the biased-guessing account and to distinguish it from other accounts, we conducted five experiments that tested the desirability bias within the paradigm and novel extensions of it. In addition to supporting the biased-guessing account, the findings illustrate the critical role of moderators (e.g., type of outcome, type of forecast) for fully understanding and predicting desirability biases.
The Desirability Bias In Predictions: Going Optimistic Without Leaving Realism
PDF (Portable Document Format)
917 KB
Created on 6/20/2016
Views: 888
Additional Information
- Publication
- Andrew R. Smith, Paul D. Windschitl, Jason P. Rose, Zlatan Krizan (2010) "The desirability bias in predictions:Going optimistic without leaving realism" Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes # 111 pp.32-47 (ISSN: 0749-5978) Version of record available @ (doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2009.08.003)
- Language: English
- Date: 2010
- Keywords
- desirability-bias, wishful-thinking, optimism-motivated, reasoning, likelihood-judgement, subjective-probability