A systematic approach for improving predicted arrival time using historical data in absence of schedule reliability
- UNCW Author/Contributor (non-UNCW co-authors, if there are any, appear on document)
- Allen Worthington Rawls (Creator)
- Institution
- The University of North Carolina Wilmington (UNCW )
- Web Site: http://library.uncw.edu/
- Advisor
- Ron Vetter
Abstract: Public transit operations are susceptible to change, both in traffic flow and other
conditions that could affect operations such as bridge openings, road floods, and
torrential downpours. Traditionally, riders at waiting stops are not informed of the transit
vehicles’ status along the route. Although it is normally not needed for daily transit
operations, live location information is particularly useful in cases when vehicles are
running behind schedule.
This thesis introduces a method for gathering and analyzing historical location
and telemetry data of public transit vehicles to better determine estimated arrival time for
a vehicle on a closed-loop public transit pattern. The research creates a system for
sending real-time locations of transit vehicles to riders through a wide array of mediums
including web pages, computer programs, graphical information displays in public
locations, mobile phone applications, mobile text messaging, and internet feeds. The
system incorporates a weighted estimated arrival time for one route in the city, the
University of North Carolina Wilmington campus loop shuttle route, which serves as a
working demonstration of these concepts. The approach shows improvement over an
arrival time estimate using only average speed.
A systematic approach for improving predicted arrival time using historical data in absence of schedule reliability
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Created on 1/1/2009
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Additional Information
- Publication
- Thesis
- A Thesis Submitted to the University of North Carolina at Wilmington in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Degree of Masters of Science
- Language: English
- Date: 2009
- Keywords
- Bus lines--Computer simulation, Bus lines--Management--Data processing, Local transit--Management--Data processing, Programming (Mathematics)
- Subjects
- Local transit -- Management -- Data processing
- Programming (Mathematics)
- Bus lines -- Management -- Data processing
- Bus lines -- Computer simulation