Ask Me No Question, I'll Tell You No Lies: Does the Bradley Effect Still Exist?

ASU Author/Contributor (non-ASU co-authors, if there are any, appear on document)
Phillip Ardoin Ph.D., Professor of American Political Institutions and Department Chair (Creator)
Appalachian State University (ASU )
Web Site:

Abstract: Since African-Americans began competing in elections in majority white districts, researchers have postulated that some whites were reticent to tell pollsters that they intended to vote for the white candidate, causing polling to be inaccurate. Prior to 2006, it was difficult to determine empirically whether the Bradley Effect existed, and if it did, how powerful of a factor it was, since there were relatively few cases to examine. This study examines the 2006 electoral contests that pitted African-Americans versus whites, and analyzes the Democratic primaries and caucuses in the 2008 presidential race. We find that a Bradley Effect did exist in about half of the 2006 elections and in about one quarter of the 2008 primaries. However, a ‘reverse’ Bradley Effect occurred about as often.

Additional Information

Ardoin, Phillip and Ronald J Vogel. (2008) “Ask Me No Question, I'll Tell You No Lies: Does the Bradley Effect Still Exist?” Race, Gender and Class: An Interdisciplinary and Multicultural Journal, 15: 3-4, pp. 65-84. (ISSN: 1082-8354) Published by the University of New Orleans. Permission to archive received from the editor, Dr. Belkhir, Oct 19, 2010
Language: English
Date: 2008

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