Andrew Smith Ph.D

Dr. Smith's research interests include: Judgment and Decision Making; Social Cognition; Risk Taking; Risk Perception; Wishful Thinking; Social Comparisons; Comparative Optimism

There are 12 included publications by Andrew Smith Ph.D:

TitleDateViewsBrief Description
Are People Excessive or Judicious in Their Egocentrism? A Modeling Approach to Understanding Bias and Accuracy in People’s Optimism 2008 406 People are often egocentric when judging their likelihood of success in competitions, leading to overoptimism about winning when circumstances are generally easy and to overpessimism when the circumstances are difficult. Yet, egocentrism might be gro...
Biased calculations: Numeric anchors influence answers to math equations 2011 460 Does desire for an outcome inflate optimism? Previous experiments have produced mixed results regarding the desirability bias, with the bulk of supportive findings coming from one paradigm—the classic marked-card paradigm in which people make discret...
Debiasing egocentrism and optimism biases in repeated 2012 373 When judging their likelihood of success in competitive tasks, people tend to be overoptimistic for easy tasks and overpessimistic for hard tasks (the shared circumstance effect; SCE). Previous research has shown that feedback and experience from rep...
The desirability bias in predictions: Going optimistic without leaving realism 2010 419 Does desire for an outcome inflate optimism? Previous experiments have produced mixed resultsregarding the desirability bias, with the bulk of supportive findings coming from one paradigm—the classic marked-card paradigm in which people make discrete...
The Effect of Target Group Size on Risk Judgments and Comparative Optimism: The More, the Riskier 2006 488 In 5 experiments, college students exhibited a group size effect on risk judgments. As the number of individuals in a target group increased, so did participants’ judgments of the risk of the average member of the group for a variety of negative life...
Hope to be right: Biased information seeking following Arbitrary and Informed Predictions 2013 494 Five studies tested when and why individuals engage in confirmatory information searches (selective exposure) following predictions. Participants engaged in selective exposure following their own predictions, evenwhen their predictions were completel...
Hoping for more: The influence of outcome desirability on information seeking and predictions about relative quantities. 2012 455 People must often engage in sequential sampling in order to make predictions about the relativequantities of two options. We investigated how directional motives influence sampling selections and resulting predictions in such cases. We used a paradig...
Optimism following a tornado disaster 2013 541 Effects of exposure to a severe weather disaster on perceived future vulnerability were assessed in college students, local residents contacted through random-digit dialing, and community residents of affected versus unaffected neighborhoods. Student...
Resisting anchoring effects: The roles of metric and mapping knowledge 2015 434 The biasing influence of anchors on numerical estimates is well established, but the relationshipbetween knowledge level and the susceptibility to anchoring effects is less clear. In two studies,we addressed the potential mitigating effects of having...
Sample size bias in the estimation of means 2010 453 The present research concerns the hypothesis that intuitive estimates of the arithmetic mean of a sample ofnumbers tend to increase as a function of the sample size; that is, they reflect a systematic sample size bias. A similar bias has been observe...
Sample Size Bias in Judgments of Perceptual Averages 2014 313 Previous research has shown that people exhibit a sample size bias when judging the average of a set of stimuli on a single dimension. The more stimuli there are in the set, the greater people judge the average to be. This effect has been demonstrate...
Why so confident? The influence of outcome desirability on selective exposure and likelihood judgment 2013 434 Previous studies that have directly manipulated outcome desirability have often found little effect on likelihood judgments (i.e., no desirability bias or wishful thinking). The present studies tested whetherselections of new information about outcom...