College openings in the United States increase mobility and COVID-19 incidence
- UNCG Author/Contributor (non-UNCG co-authors, if there are any, appear on document)
- Martin S. Andersen, Associate Professor (Creator)
- Institution
- The University of North Carolina at Greensboro (UNCG )
- Web Site: http://library.uncg.edu/
Abstract: School and college reopening-closure policies are considered one of the most promising nonpharmaceuticalinterventions for mitigating infectious diseases. Nonetheless, the effectiveness ofthese policies is still debated, largely due to the lack of empirical evidence on behavior duringimplementation. We examined U.S. college reopenings’ association with changes in humanmobility within campuses and in COVID-19 incidence in the counties of the campuses over atwenty-week period around college reopenings in the Fall of 2020. We used an integrativeframework, with a difference-in-differences design comparing areas with a college campus, beforeand after reopening, to areas without a campus and a Bayesian approach to estimate the dailyreproductive number (Rt). We found that college reopenings were associated with increasedcampus mobility, and increased COVID-19 incidence by 4.9 cases per 100,000 (95% confidenceinterval [CI]: 2.9–6.9), or a 37% increase relative to the pre-period mean. This reflected ourestimate of increased transmission locally after reopening. A greater increase in county COVID-19 incidence resulted from campuses that drew students from counties with high COVID-19incidence in the weeks before reopening (?2(2) = 8.9, p = 0.012) and those with a greater share ofcollege students, relative to population (?2(2) = 98.83, p < 0.001). Even by Fall of 2022, largeshares of populations remained unvaccinated, increasing the relevance of understanding nonpharmaceuticaldecisions over an extended period of a pandemic. Our study sheds light onmovement and social mixing patterns during the closure-reopening of colleges during a publichealth threat, and offers strategic instruments for benefit-cost analyses of school reopening/closurepolicies.
College openings in the United States increase mobility and COVID-19 incidence
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Created on 8/28/2023
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Additional Information
- Publication
- PLoS ONE 17(8)
- Language: English
- Date: 2022
- Keywords
- college campus, Covid-19, public health