The Dilemma of Choosing Talent: Michael Jordans are Hard to Find

ASU Author/Contributor (non-ASU co-authors, if there are any, appear on document)
Peter Groothuis Ph.D., Professor (Creator)
Institution
Appalachian State University (ASU )
Web Site: https://library.appstate.edu/

Abstract: This article explores the dilemma of choosing talent using NBA data from 1987 to 2003. We find there is much uncertainty in selecting talent. If superstars are found, they are usually identified early. However, more false positives exist than correct decisions with high draft picks. Our results suggest the dilemma of choosing talent is not so much a winner’s curse but more like a purchase of a lottery ticket. Most times you lose, but, if you are going to win, you must buy a ticket.

Additional Information

Publication
Groothuis, P.A., Hill, J.R., and Perri, T. (2009), The Dilemma of Choosing Talent: Michael Jordans are Hard to Find. Applied Economics, 41(25): 3193-3198 (Nov 2009). Published by Taylor & Francis (ISSN: 0003-6846). DOI: 10.1080/00036840701564459
Language: English
Date: 2009

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